The Crisis of the Democratic Party
Even though Biden seems to be able to get the presidency, I still think the Democrats are in a huge trouble.
The fact that even under the help from mainstream media (The Democrats will say the media filters the fake news and misleading information while the Republicans will say the media blocks anti-Biden / pro-Trump information and is practicing censorship), the Covid-19, and the polarized opinions toward Trump's presidency , Democrats could only win the election with such a small margin, tells us that if the Democratic establishment fails to learn any lesson and make some changes, the Democrats will lose by a landslide in next election.
Trump's personality and his image of strong/extreme leadership attracts many people as well as leads many other people to his opponent. I feel suspicious whether Biden will get that many votes if Trump is not there, or if Pence, instead of Trump, was the candidate. The point might be, to which side the moderate will vote.
Therefore, we need to get back to consider the base of the conservatives and the liberals. Even though the liberal ideology is favorable among the mainstream media, the metro residents, and the younger generation, and therefore seems to be more vocal. But it is a delusion. Generally speaking, when it come to election and votes, the base of the conservative is much stronger. Biden leads only slightly in the key/battleground states that he wins or leads. If not because of the factors I mention above (media, Covid-19, Trump's personality), would the self-identified moderate vote for Biden? If the Democrats keep staying in their comfort zone and campaign in the way it does now, they will get the bitter fruit in their next harvest season.
Democrats need to see the red wall on the election map and ponder why their policies and ideology could not be more persuasive to the rural residents. Biden became the candidate because the Democrats lack candidates without obvious weakness. As Biden is becoming the president, except for the challenge that he needs to reunite this divided nation, his largest challenge might be to train and raise one or a group of less extreme Democratic political stars, who would be able to amend and communicate the gap between the right wing and the left. Extremely leftist candidates will likely shift the moderate votes toward the conservative camp and will even stir more votes from the conservatives.
For Republicans, unless the Democrats could produce a moderate-left political star, their conservative base is actually strong and unbreakable. We can see that, even under such a unfavorable situation, Trump could still get so many votes and the margins in the key states are so small. The Democrats need to stop blaming the voters, and start to rethink their messages. If the Republican had a more moderate candidate, and the Democratic Party had a more leftist candidate, based on the strong conservative base, the Republican Party would actually win the election. Let's put the strong blue or strong red states aside, and take a look at the battleground states and some states that turn blue this year, and take a look at the ratio of the ideology composition according to CNN exit poll (Liberal: Moderate: Conservative):
PA 24:41:34
MI 24:39:37
WI 25:39:36
NV 26:39:35
AZ 22:36:42
GA 22:38:40
NC 20:40:39
CO 30:39:32
Biden is leading in these states except for North Carolina. The key is that the moderate votes fall for Biden. According to the ideological ratio in these states, how many of these state could be won by the Democrats if their candidate is Sanders or AOC? If Democrats keep staying in their comfort zone in the metro area and in media, they are due to a huge defeat in the next election.
The fact that even under the help from mainstream media (The Democrats will say the media filters the fake news and misleading information while the Republicans will say the media blocks anti-Biden / pro-Trump information and is practicing censorship), the Covid-19, and the polarized opinions toward Trump's presidency , Democrats could only win the election with such a small margin, tells us that if the Democratic establishment fails to learn any lesson and make some changes, the Democrats will lose by a landslide in next election.
Trump's personality and his image of strong/extreme leadership attracts many people as well as leads many other people to his opponent. I feel suspicious whether Biden will get that many votes if Trump is not there, or if Pence, instead of Trump, was the candidate. The point might be, to which side the moderate will vote.
Therefore, we need to get back to consider the base of the conservatives and the liberals. Even though the liberal ideology is favorable among the mainstream media, the metro residents, and the younger generation, and therefore seems to be more vocal. But it is a delusion. Generally speaking, when it come to election and votes, the base of the conservative is much stronger. Biden leads only slightly in the key/battleground states that he wins or leads. If not because of the factors I mention above (media, Covid-19, Trump's personality), would the self-identified moderate vote for Biden? If the Democrats keep staying in their comfort zone and campaign in the way it does now, they will get the bitter fruit in their next harvest season.
Democrats need to see the red wall on the election map and ponder why their policies and ideology could not be more persuasive to the rural residents. Biden became the candidate because the Democrats lack candidates without obvious weakness. As Biden is becoming the president, except for the challenge that he needs to reunite this divided nation, his largest challenge might be to train and raise one or a group of less extreme Democratic political stars, who would be able to amend and communicate the gap between the right wing and the left. Extremely leftist candidates will likely shift the moderate votes toward the conservative camp and will even stir more votes from the conservatives.
For Republicans, unless the Democrats could produce a moderate-left political star, their conservative base is actually strong and unbreakable. We can see that, even under such a unfavorable situation, Trump could still get so many votes and the margins in the key states are so small. The Democrats need to stop blaming the voters, and start to rethink their messages. If the Republican had a more moderate candidate, and the Democratic Party had a more leftist candidate, based on the strong conservative base, the Republican Party would actually win the election. Let's put the strong blue or strong red states aside, and take a look at the battleground states and some states that turn blue this year, and take a look at the ratio of the ideology composition according to CNN exit poll (Liberal: Moderate: Conservative):
PA 24:41:34
MI 24:39:37
WI 25:39:36
NV 26:39:35
AZ 22:36:42
GA 22:38:40
NC 20:40:39
CO 30:39:32
Biden is leading in these states except for North Carolina. The key is that the moderate votes fall for Biden. According to the ideological ratio in these states, how many of these state could be won by the Democrats if their candidate is Sanders or AOC? If Democrats keep staying in their comfort zone in the metro area and in media, they are due to a huge defeat in the next election.
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